Remaining Confident During The Financial Crisis

by Dr. Boyce Watkins
http://www.boycewatkins.com/

If you listen carefully to the words of Treasury Secretary Henry “Hank” Paulson and Ben “Big Ben” Bernanke (chairman of the Federal Reserve) you might notice a trend in their language. The word “confidence” is used a lot when they speak. Many of their monetary proposals are not necessarily valuable for their financial power, but also for their psychological power.

Some of you may wonder what confidence has to do with anything. After all, if you’re broke, confidence doesn’t exactly put money in your pocket. If you’re 100 pounds overweight, confidence won’t help you win the Olympic 100 meter dash. When you are flying on a crashing plane, confidence doesn’t keep the plane from slamming into the ground. But confidence is important to an economy, and one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. In fact, over confidence has driven US economic growth for the past 10 years. Here are some reasons that confidence matters in the minds of Hank and Big Ben:

1) Confident consumers spend money
If you think you might lose your job next year, are you going to max out your credit cards? I certainly hope not. If you are worried about being able to make ends meet, are you going to buy that big screen TV? Not unless you want your wife to leave you. So, even if it doesn’t hold any truth, the mere forecast of a weak economy is enough to make many Americans hold off on consumer spending, one of the great driving forces of the American financial system.

2) Confident companies invest money and hire workers
Investments involve risk. Your hunch may work out, and it may not. If you don’t believe the economy is getting better, you are not going to consider taking that risk. No one plans to go to the beach if the weather man says that it’s going to rain. When economic rain is in the forecast, companies pull out their umbrellas and hold off on new projects. This reduces the number of jobs in the economy, because nearly every job created in America is the result of someone making an investment.

3) Confident Americans do not take their money out of banks
In case you didn’t know, your bank does not have your money. Your money is part of a large base of financial capital that is loaned out to individuals and consumers seeking to get a good return on their investment. So, without investing, your bank would have no interest in paying you any interest at all. So if, say, 30% of all customers of the same bank decide to get their money out at the same time, the bank would have serious financial problems. It is a lack of confidence that could cause customers to “run” on their bank and take out their money.

4) Confident investors keep their money in the stock market
The stock market is a place where fortunes are made and lost. Some part of that fortune is psychological, given that no asset can have a value which exceeds that which someone is willing to pay for it. When investors lose confidence, they take their money out of the stock market, and reductions in demand for stocks lead to massive paper losses in the market. Additionally, most Americans are “momentum traders”, meaning that when the market goes up, they tend to buy more, and when it goes down, they tend to sell. History shows that it is actually the opposite approach that tends to work best.

5) Confident banks make loans
Banks have to keep a certain portion of their funds on hand at all times to meet federal requirements. If they are fearful that their customers might come and demand their cash, they hold onto their capital to ensure that it is available. If they are afraid that their borrowing customers will not be able to repay loans due to a weak economy, they also hold back on issuing new loans. The truth is that when economic forecasts are grim, conservative bankers become even more fearful than the rest of us.

The bottom line of this article is that confidence matters. So, the next time you hear Ben Bernanke give a speech, you can be confident that he is going to use language that makes you feel more secure. Whether you choose to believe those words is up to you.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good”. For more information, please visit http://boycewatikns.com/

The Real Causes of the Financial Crisis

By Dr. Boyce Watkins

www.BoyceWatkins.com

I am no fan of President Bush. I made fun of the silly man long before it was popular to do so. However, in this case, I have to be one of the first to stand up and say that you can’t put all the blame for this financial crisis on his back. The War in Iraq? Yes. Hurricane Katrina? Absolutely. Damn near everything else? Sure, why not? But this financial mess should not, as our leading presidential candidates want you to believe, be slapped on the political tomb of Mr. Bush. That doesn’t mean he didn’t play a role, but Bush was more of a supporting actor in this horror story, not the star.

The horror story to which I am referring is that little news event surrounding a $700 Billion dollar bailout being sponsored by the Office Underwriting Corporate Hedonism (OUCH), also known as the Federal Reserve. Now, this is a different brand of corporate welfare, as taxpayer dollars are not being given away. At worst, taxpayer resources are being put at risk, as the Federal Reserve is making huge capital allocations to some of the nation’s most troubled financial institutions. As a lender of last resort, the Fed is responsible for investing money where the rest of us certainly would not.

To put it in layman’s terms, this is like using your savings account to loan money to an uncle who was fired for drinking on the job. Sure, he has been responsible in the past, and will likely be re-employed, but his recent behavior leaves you a little concerned. In the same light, taxpayer dollars in a financial crisis are like little soldiers being deployed to provide stability to the deadliest parts of the world. Many soldiers will come back home, while quite a few are going to be killed. Depletion of our government capital is quite likely in this scenario, for solving a global liquidity crisis with available reserves can be like using a kitchen sponge to soak up the ocean.

With that said, let’s discuss what this crisis is really all about. We must first understand the nature of our financial institutions. Banks and other entities providing credit to the consumer are a lot like drug dealers (both legal and illegal drug dealers are included in this example). Drug dealers give you something that you definitely want and even think you need. The drug (cash) is powerful, makes your problems go away and has a long-term consequence if you abuse it. That’s where the government steps in. The role of government is to regulate our financial drug dealers to ensure that they are not encouraging substance abuse from the users (American consumers), and to also ensure that consumers are relatively well-educated about the consequences of using the drugs (that’s where terms like “predatory lending” come from).

In order to make the economy appear strong, our financial drug dealers were allowed to run wild. Loans were being made to people who could not afford to pay them, causing the prices of homes to be bid out of control (it’s easier to bid a higher price on a home when your banker loans you all the money you need). Ultimately, consequences were felt when millions of Americans suddenly realized that they could not repay the amounts listed on the dotted line. This situation is not much different from what we are now seeing in the pharmaceutical industry, in which drug companies are using ads to encourage patients to walk into the doctor’s office and ask for whatever drug they saw on TV the night before (you hear that Rush Limbaugh?).

Now, before you go and burn down the nearest bank in your neighborhood, realize that it takes two to Tango. As Bill Cosby (perhaps naively) believes, “making good decisions makes everything ok.” We must remember that if all people made good decisions, drug dealers would have no customers. The truth of the matter is that in spite of the fact that our institutions and governmental authorities have failed us, one of the greatest culprits in this mess is the financial greed and myopia of the American consumer. We as Americans are among the most gluttonous and short-sighted consumers in the world. We borrow money to go on vacation without thinking twice, we don’t save for retirement, and we tend to do P Diddy/Paris Hilton imitations on every shopping trip. Money is our drug and we all rejoiced when there were more drug dealers in our neighborhoods.

So while Barack Obama and John McCain want to attack the clearly unqualified man in the White House over this mess, the truth is that we mostly have ourselves to blame. This crisis affects us all, and the corporate problems are nothing more than an aggregated manifestation of very bad individual decisions. Simultaneously, our legislators must be held accountable when ensuring that corporations are given incentives to engage in responsible lending. Perhaps a hybrid of the Cosby model is appropriate here: let’s get the drug dealers out of our neighborhoods, but let’s also make our neighborhoods a bad place to sell drugs.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of the forthcoming book “Black American Money”. He does regular commentary on CNN, CBS and NBC. For more information, please visit www.BoyceWatkins.com.

Lessons from Ed McMahon's Financial Crisis

Add Ed McMahon from the Tonight Show to the list of celebs getting their homes forclosed upon. I saw this story in CNN Today and it led to a set of thoughts that I wanted to share quickly. These were the thoughts that led me to write Financial Lovemaking 101, since the mistakes of the McMahon family are not uncommon:

1) Making alot of money is the easiest way to trick yourself into thinking you have more than you really do.

2) Celebs are not as wealthy as you think. Many of them are trying to maintain a perception that others expect to see.

3) If you are in an industry that doesn't have much job security, you should go overboard to protect your financial security. Actors have incredibly poor job security, even the really good ones.

4) If you hit retirement age, you should be extra conservative with your spending. If you lose your money at that stage of life, it's hard to get it back.

5) Pay someone you trust to watch the person who is watching your money. Then watch the person you're paying to watch the other person.

Did that make sense?

The article is here, enjoy!